Cotton was unaffected by traditional news this week as prospects for more rain in the Delta made no dent on traders. The weather simply was not a factor in the face of a strong dollar and a weak stock market, traders said.

"October 1, the first day of the last quarter of 2009 proved to be a disaster to almost everyone but the shorts," an analyst said. "The dollar was the exception to that as it was just about the only green on the screen."

This week, traders marked the final day of the month as well as the third quarter. Historically, the cotton business typically picks up in the fourth quarter, and to an even greater extent, into the first quarter of the coming year. While the global economy slowly heals, demand will respond in kind with the cotton supply remaining an uncertainty. Cotton traders will be watching the scenario closely.

In other news, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projected world cotton production one percent lower in 2009-10 at 106.1 million bales. A small drop in cotton area is expected to be partially offset by a small increase in the average yield. Production is expected to increase in India, the United States, Pakistan, and Australia, and to decrease in China and Brazil. Cotton plantings in the Southern Hemisphere will start on a large scale in October. Cotton area in this part of the world is expected to remain stable in 2009-10.

Cotton mill use is expected to recover by two percent in 2009-10 to 108.4 million bales based on a small recovery in world economic growth, ICAC said. Cotton mill use is forecast to start recovering in the top three cotton consuming countries which are China, India, and Pakistan after declines last season. Mill use also is forecast to increase in smaller Asian countries including Bangladesh and Vietnam where cotton mill use continued to increase in 2008-09 despite the economic crisis. However, further declines in mill use are projected in Europe, the Americas, and East Asia.

The committee expects world cotton imports to be up five percent in the upcoming season. Chinese imports are expected to be higher, and increases are projected in Pakistan, Turkey, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Thailand. U.S. exports are projected at 6.43 million bales, down 20 percent from the previous season due to increased competition from other countries.

Meanwhile, over the last few weeks U.S. export sales have been dismal. However, one must keep in mind that the U.S. has only a limited amount of old-crop cotton left for sale, and the new crop cotton still is fraught with uncertainties. One analyst said the low export sales figures must be "taken with a grain of salt" because traders cannot sell what is not there.

At 60,700 bales, USDA reported net export sales of U.S. cotton were up 20 percent from the previous week but down 57 percent from the four-week average. Featured buyers were Turkey, Vietnam, and China. Net sales of 1,200 bales for delivery in 20 10-11 were for Mexico.

Export shipments of 181,900 bales were up nine percent from the previous week and eight percent from the four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Turkey, Mexico, and Thailand.

Due to decreasing amounts of available cotton, sales decreased dramatically in the spot cotton market during the week ended Oct. 1. Producers in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas sold 32 bales online compared with 1,310 bales the previous week. Average prices received by producers ranged from 50.29 to 55.00 cents per pound.