2010-05-26 / Farm & Ranch

Cotton Market Weekly

May 20, 2010
A Service Provided by Plains Cotton Cooperative Association

Before falling to lower levels at the end of the week, cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) were boosted by buying from Chinese mills along with reports that weather may be interfering with cotton plantings in some parts of China.

The U.S. is the world's top cotton exporter and the third largest producer. China, the worlds largest customer for U.S cotton, also is the world's largest cotton producer, importer, and textile manufacturer. Last week, the country announced an additional 2010 import quota to meet strong domestic demand.

Meanwhile, traders said there were concerns this week about weather impacting China's crop. Heavy spring rains and periodic cool temperatures have been unfavorable for early planting in China's eastern and western cotton-growing areas.

"Since China is short on cotton anyway, they can't have anything to go wrong at this point in time without really impacting the industry there," a trader said.

Continued demand from China showed up in USDA's weekly U.S export sales data for the week of May 13 as the country purchased the bulk of the cotton sold. Peru and Turkey rounded out the list of top three buyers.

Net export sales of 242,100 bales for delivery in 2009-10 were down seven percent from the previous week but up two percent from the four-week average. Net sales of 162,300 bales for delivery in 2010-11 were considered healthy as well.

Export shipments of 272,700 bales were up five percent from the previous week but unchanged from the fourweek average. Primary destinationswere China, Turkey, and Mexico.

Sales on the spot cotton market were considerably lower as the amount of available old-crop cotton continues to dwindle. Growers in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas sold 58 bales online in the week ended May 20 compared to the previous week when 415 bales were traded. Prices received by producers averaged 71.00 cents per pound versus a range of 62.88 to 75.50 cents per pound one week earlier.

In other market news, cotton futures prices also have continued to draw on support from expected tight inventories. In particular, analysts cited data on ending stocks from last week's USDAreport. The department estimated that U.S. stocks at the end of the 2010-11 marketing year will be 3.0 million bales which could be the lowest since the 1995- 96 crop year and down from 3.10 million bales estimated for the current year.

Other market influences have included the euro-zone debt issues that have come to light in recent weeks. The situation has generated worries about the economy and also has boosted the dollar, both of which normally hurt commodity prices.

"Weaker equities tend to hurt confidence in the economy and thus cotton demand while a muscular dollar makes commodities generally more expensive in other currencies," a trader explained. "Still, cotton futures are staying strong in the face of a falling stock market and a rising U.S. dollar," he said.

Cotton tends to have some seasonal strength in May while the U.S. crop is planted. This is due to the potential for adverse weather to hamper planting efforts.

So far, planting appears to be occurring at a normal pace. The U.S. crop was 47 percent planted as of May 16 compared to 39 percent at the same time one year ago and a historical average of 46 percent, according to USDA data.

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